NFL Week 5 · Predictions and Start/Sit · October 8 to 12, 2026
NFL Week 5 Predictions: All 15 Picks, Plus Who to Start With Caleb Williams and Lamar Jackson Hurt [Fantasy Start/Sit]
Five winless teams, three unbeaten ones, a London kickoff before breakfast, and two franchise quarterbacks sidelined or close to it. Every game picked, every line checked, every fantasy call made.
Houston and Tennessee play each other in Nashville on Sunday, so at least one of the five streaks is guaranteed to end. The other three get Dallas, Cincinnati and Denver.
Four weeks in, the NFL has split into tiers faster than usual. Kansas City, Minnesota and San Francisco are 4-0. Houston, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Miami and the Chargers are 0-4. And the middle of the league is being decided by backups: Chicago is 3-1 without Caleb Williams, the Giants are alone in first place with Jameis Winston, and Baltimore heads to Atlanta on Sunday night probably without Lamar Jackson.
Below is our pick for all 15 games, built against the current betting lines, followed by the injury board, five bold predictions, and a PPR start/sit for the names fantasy managers are asking about most. The Chiefs and Panthers are on bye.
Every Week 5 Pick
Lock means we would be surprised to be wrong. Lean means we like a side. Coin flip means it is a coin flip. Upset means we are picking against the line.
An undrafted rookie quarterback on the road against CeeDee Lamb coming off 17 catches. Dallas covers.
Jacksonville is the designated home team at Tottenham. Barkley’s hamstring decides how close it gets. Take the Jags to win, not to cover.
Burrow threw 54 times last week and will throw plenty more without Chase or Higgins. Seven points is too many for a depleted receiving room.
New England just beat Buffalo. Las Vegas just lost by three to Kansas City. Home field breaks the tie.
Minnesota scored 15 points in a win last week and may be without Jefferson. Unbeaten, not untouchable.
The market likes the Jets at home. We like the team that is 3-1 and won a Thursday night division game in Week 4.
Indianapolis comes back from a 30-13 win in London. The trip home is the tiebreaker.
Someone leaves Nashville with a win. Houston just put 30 on Dallas, which is 30 more reasons than Tennessee has given us.
Daniels is back, and that matters. So does a Giants team alone in first place that just scored 36. The Jameis Effect travels.
Bagent threw for 268 yards against the Jets. Chicago has won its last two with two different backups, and the books still favor the Bears at Lambeau.
The Chargers are 0-4 and home underdogs. Denver’s defense makes it 0-5.
The highest total on the board. Detroit is coming off a Sunday night loss in Carolina and Gibbs is due.
The game of the week. The defending champions at home, against the last unbeaten team in the NFC West. One point decides it.
Atlanta ran for five touchdowns on Monday night. If Lamar plays, flip this pick. If Huntley starts, it stands.
Puka is back and the total is 53.5. Josh Allen against Matthew Stafford on Monday night, decided by the last possession.
The Injury Board
The hamstring keeps the Iceman out for a third straight game. Ben Johnson has named Tyson Bagent the starter at Green Bay.
A sprained ankle sent him out of the Titans game in a walking boot, and NFL Network reporting gives him only an outside chance to play in Atlanta. Tyler Huntley went 8 of 9 for 63 yards in relief. The line flipped from Baltimore favored to Atlanta favored.
A dislocated right thumb. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his second start on Thursday night.
Chase is in the concussion protocol and Higgins has an adductor injury. Higgins had 11 catches for 157 yards last week before leaving.
Inactive in Week 4 with an ankle sprain and aiming to return in New Orleans. Kevin O’Connell would not commit either way.
A hamstring, heading into the 9:30 a.m. London kickoff.
Washington plans to start him against the Giants after the elbow cost him two games. Marcus Mariota is dealing with a knee injury.
Returned in Week 4 and caught 9 of 12 targets for 125 yards, plus a 2-yard rushing touchdown.
Five Bold Predictions
Counting up to the one that reshapes the standings.
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5Titans vs TexansSomebody finally wins in Nashville
Two 0-4 teams, one stadium. Houston gets its first win and Tennessee becomes one of four teams still searching. Barring a tie, at least one winless streak ends here.
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4Bengals at DolphinsJoe Burrow throws for 300 without Chase or Higgins
He threw for 428 last week, reached 2,000 career completions in 81 games to tie Patrick Mahomes as the fastest ever, and broke Andy Dalton’s Bengals record with his 29th career 300-yard game. Volume does not leave when the receivers do.
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3Buccaneers at CowboysCeeDee Lamb clears 100 yards again on Thursday
Seventeen catches, 189 yards and the winning touchdown with 40 seconds left in Houston. Now he gets a team starting an undrafted rookie quarterback, which means Tampa Bay will be chasing all night.
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2Giants at CommandersThe Giants win in Washington and stay alone in first
New York has the NFC East to itself for the first time since November 2015. Jayden Daniels’ return makes this the hardest game on their schedule so far. We still like the team that just scored 36.
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1The unbeaten listBy Tuesday, only Kansas City and Minnesota are unbeaten
The Chiefs are on bye at 4-0. Minnesota survives New Orleans. And San Francisco’s unbeaten start ends by a single point in Seattle, against the team that won the Super Bowl.
Fantasy Start/Sit: The Names Everyone Is Asking About
Scoring is PPR unless noted: 0.1 per yard, 6 per touchdown, 1 per reception, and for quarterbacks 0.04 per passing yard, 4 per passing touchdown and minus 2 per interception. Every Week 4 total was calculated from the official line. A plus sign means part of the line, such as rushing yards, was not available, so the figure is a floor.
Week 4 in One Table
Every result that set up this week, including Atlanta’s 45-24 Monday night rout in New Orleans and Indianapolis’ 30-13 win in London.
| Week 4 game | Final | Records now |
|---|---|---|
| Browns vs Steelers (TNF) | CLE 27, PIT 24 | CLE 3-1, PIT 2-2 |
| Colts vs Commanders (London) | IND 30, WAS 13 | IND 2-2, WAS 1-3 |
| Cowboys at Texans | DAL 34, HOU 30 | DAL 2-2, HOU 0-4 |
| Bears vs Jets | CHI 23, NYJ 12 | CHI 3-1, NYJ 1-3 |
| Jaguars at Bengals | JAX 22, CIN 17 | JAX 3-1, CIN 2-2 |
| Ravens vs Titans | BAL 24, TEN 18 | BAL 3-1, TEN 0-4 |
| Giants vs Cardinals | NYG 36, ARI 24 | NYG 3-1, ARI 1-3 |
| Rams vs Eagles | LAR 24, PHI 20 | LAR 2-2, PHI 2-2 |
| Packers vs Buccaneers | GB 17, TB 14 | GB 2-2, TB 0-4 |
| Patriots vs Bills | NE 29, BUF 26 | NE 2-2, BUF 3-1 |
| Vikings vs Dolphins | MIN 15, MIA 10 | MIN 4-0, MIA 0-4 |
| 49ers vs Broncos | SF 24, DEN 14 | SF 4-0, DEN 2-2 |
| Seahawks vs Chargers | SEA 30, LAC 23 | SEA 3-1, LAC 0-4 |
| Chiefs vs Raiders | KC 30, LV 27 | KC 4-0, LV 3-1 |
| Panthers vs Lions (SNF) | CAR 32, DET 26 | CAR 2-2, DET 2-2 |
| Falcons at Saints (MNF) | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL 2-2, NO 1-3 |
Week 5 is a test of depth. Chicago without Caleb Williams, Baltimore probably without Lamar Jackson, Cincinnati without both of Burrow’s top receivers, Tampa Bay without Baker Mayfield. Our picks: Dallas is the lock, the Browns and Giants are the upsets, and the 49ers’ perfect start ends by a point in Seattle. If you need one fantasy name, it is CeeDee Lamb on Thursday night.
If one of these players is carrying your fantasy team, or your actual team, you might as well wear him. The Caleb Williams Iceman shirt, the CeeDee Lamb shirt and the Cam Skattebo shirt in the carousel below are part of Planet Euphoria’s full NFL lineup, a catalog of hand-drawn NFL graphic tees that also covers Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Jefferson, Joe Burrow and Puka Nacua. Every NFL player graphic tee in it is printed to order and numbered, and each run retires at 500.
Three of the names on this page, all hand-drawn, hand-printed to order in Schenectady, New York, and individually numbered out of 500.
Caleb Williams “Iceman”
CeeDee Lamb
Cam SkatteboNFL Week 5: Your Questions, Answered
Who are the favorites in NFL Week 5?
Is Caleb Williams playing in Week 5?
Is Lamar Jackson playing against the Falcons?
What time is the NFL London game in Week 5?
Which NFL teams are on bye in Week 5?
Where can I buy NFL player graphic tees?
Week 4 results per footballdb and ESPN game pages, cross-checked where sources disagreed; three scores shown by a CBS scoreboard summary (Falcons-Saints, Colts-Commanders, Vikings-Dolphins) were wrong and were corrected against ESPN, PFF and team coverage. Records are after Week 4. Betting lines per Fox Sports as of October 6, 2026, cross-checked against CBS Sports; lines move and these picks are editorial judgment, not betting advice. Thursday kickoff per the Buccaneers’ broadcast page (8:15 PM ET), London kickoff per the Eagles, other times per network listings converted to Eastern. Injury statuses checked October 7 against team and league reporting and may change before kickoff. Player lines per NBC Sports, CBS Sports, team sites and Yahoo Sports. Fantasy totals were calculated in code from the official lines.